The Pittsburgh Penguins currently hold the 11th and 12th overall picks in the 2025 NHL Draft. With a few interesting options projected to be available just outside of the top 10, the Penguins needs to hit with at least one of the picks–ideally both–as the organization starts to think toward a post “Big Three” era.
Combining draft rankings from 14 different sources produces a list of 53 prospects with at least one first round projection then ranked according to averages across all rankings. View the full list here.
After combining the 14 different sources, 16 players appear on all projections:
- Matthew Schaefer (D, Erie Otters, OHL)
- Michael Misa (C, Saginaw Spirit, OHL)
- James Hagens (C, Boston College, NCAA)
- Porter Martone (RW, Brampton Steelheads, OHL)
- Victor Eklund (LW, Djurgårdens IF, HockeyAllsvenskan)
- Anton Frondell (C, Djurgårdens IF, HockeyAllsvenskan)
- Caleb Desnoyers (C, Moncton Wildcats, QMJHL)
- Roger McQueen (C, Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL)
- Jackson Smith (D, Tri-City Americans, WHL)
- Radim Mrtka (D, Seattle Thunderbirds, WHL)
- Jake O’Brien (C, Brampton Bulldogs, OHL)
- Carter Bear (LW, Everett Silvertips, WHL)
- Lynden Lakovic (LW, Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL)
- Logan Hensler (D, University Of Wisconsin, NCAA)
- Malcolm Spence (LW, Erie Otters, OHL)
- Benjamin Kindel (RW, Calgary Hitmen, WHL)
Defenseman Matthew Schaefer ekes out as the consensus first overall pick with a 1.21 average ranking, followed by center Michael Misa with a 2.21 average ranking. Only James Hagens and Porter Martone averaged out as top five picks, and Victor Eklund, Anton Frondell, Caleb Desnoyers, Roger McQueen, and Jackson Smith average out as top 10 picks. Just outside of the top 10, expect the Penguins to weigh multiple factors in the selecting at 11th and 12th overall.
Roger McQueen
C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
A back injury limited Roger McQueen to only 17 games with the Brandon Wheat Kings in the WHL last season, but the 6’5″, 192 lbs. center managed 10 goals, 20 points and 40 PIMs in the short sample size after posting 21 goals and 51 points in 53 games the season prior. Tremendous potential makes McQueen a candidate to be off the board several picks ahead of the 11th overall selection, but a questionable ability to stay healthy potentially allows McQueen to drop out of the top 10. Though a high ceiling, McQueen comes with maybe just a little too much uncertainty on a rebuilding team needing as close to a sure thing as possible.
Jackson Smith
D, Tri-City Americans (WHL)
Probably the top blueliner available after potential first overall pick Matthew Schaefer, Jackson Smith plays a solid game at both ends of the ice and recorded 54 points in 68 games with the Tri-City Americans in the WHL last season–fourth on the team. Committed to play for Penn State University next season, taking the 6’3″, 190 lbs. defenseman with the 11th overall pick potentially gives the Penguins another blue chip prospect on the blueline, but expect a team picking ahead of the Penguins reach ever so slightly on the talented rearguard in a forward-heavy draft.
Radim Mrtka
D, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)
A big blueliner at 6’6″, 218 lbs. with the ability to move the puck, Radim Mrtka recorded 35 points in 43 games with the Seattle Thunderbirds in the WHL last season–fifth on the team despite only playing half the season after coming over from Czechia. Size, skill, and being a right handed shot potentially gets Mrtka off the board prior to the 11th overall selection, but potentially joining the Penguins at 11th overall gives the organization a solid defensive prospect on the right side behind 2024 second round pick Harrison Brunicke or flexibility to make a trade in the future using either prospect as a chip.
Jake O’Brien
C, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)
Jake O’Brien *feels* like the ideal fit for the organization sorely lacking in center prospects. With 98 points in 66 games last season, improving on 64 points in 61 games as a rookie in 2023-24, and good size at 6’2″ with room to fill out at 170 lbs., O’Brien comes with the potential to evolve into a legitimate top six center. With five centers projected to go ahead of O’Brien in Misa, Hagens, Frondell, Desnoyers, and McQueen, O’Brien falling to the Penguins just outside the top 10 seems possible.
Carter Bear
LW, Everett Silvertips (WHL)
Carter Bear scored 40 goals in only 56 games with the Everett Silvertips in the WHL last season, improving on 25 in 67 as a rookie the year prior. With okay size at 6’0″, 176 lbs. and likely to be available with the 11th pick, Bear gives the Penguins another dynamic prospect on the wing but likely only lands with Pittsburgh if all the top centers go off the board in the the top 10.
Lynden Lakovic
LW, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)
Another winger, Lynden Lackovic led a very bad Moose Jaw Warriors team with 58 points in 47 games. A 6’4″, 190 lbs., Lackovic brings good size to the lineup but plays without a physical edde–recording only four penalty minutes last season.
Justin Carbonneau
RW, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)
Maybe a bit of a sleeper, Justin Carbonneau finished second in the QMJHL with 46 goals and 89 points in 62 games last season–a nice jump on 31 goals and 59 points in 2023-24, and checks in at 6’1″, 192 lbs. Criticism includes being somewhat one-dimensional, likely meaning a bit longer of a development curve.
Brady Martin
C, Soo Greyhounds (OHL)
The Penguins tied to a player from the Soo Greyhounds? Life imitates memes. However, Brady Martin scored 33 goals and recorded 72 points in 57 games with the Greyhounds last season and gives the Penguins a legitimate top six center candidate. With okay size at 6’0″, 184 lbs., though likely not as high of a ceiling as some of the prospects projected to go earlier, Martin looks like a safe bet to develop into a serviceable player and potentially a nice compliment to 2024 second round pick Tanner Howe in the future.
Prediction
If Jake O’Brien slips out of the top 10, expect the Penguins to nab the talented center. Recent mock drafts suggest O’Brien going inside the top 10, however, precluding the Penguins. Brady Martin makes for a good consolation prize and potentially a better fit with the potential to develop into a middle six center playing with pace and grit without the expectation of developing into a bonafide first liner.
Roger McQueen comes with some risk but a potentially high reward–given the size, skill, and recent reports suggesting a fully recovered and little risk to re-aggravate the injury, expect McQueen to go inside the top 10. Similarly, the size, skill, and handedness of Radim Mrtka likely make the Czech blueliner a top 10 pick.
Jackson Smith makes a lot of sense if the team opts to take one forward and one defenseman, similar to taking Harrison Brunicke and Tanner Howe with the 44th and 46th overall picks last season.
While not necessarily the biggest need for the team, given the way the top 10 shakes out, the Penguins potentially end up with one of three wingers all with pros and cons in Carter Bear–a potentially dangerous goal scorer with some injury concerns, Justin Carbonneau–a sniper with the need develop some two-way ability, or Lynden Lackovic–a talented winger with good size but not a lot sandpaper.
Of course, the potential to use either or both of the picks to move up in the draft and potentially bring in other assets exists.